Ukranian: We estimate approximately 1000t carry over from 2015. The 2016 harvest is forecast at 15-17,000t with no major issues to adversely affect the crop.
Bulgarian: The crop harvest has now started. Supplier expectations are for a sizeable crop with steady or lower prices. As long as the Ukranian buffer stock continues to supply the market until the start of Bulgarian crop, market should remain calm.
Moroccan: Following the relatively low crops of 2014 and 2015 (app. 6,000t each), Morocco had a bountiful harvest in 2015, where an estimated 12,000t was available.
2016 harvest continues at a steady rate. With the rains coming late throughout the year, and the general drought effecting the country, suppliers are indicating a short crop, perhaps by up to 50%. Total area planted is also in question, with figures varying 40-50%. 2016 started with almost no carry over.
Indian: The coriander market is in a consolidation phase. Major spot markets are witnessing limited supplies and the medium term price trend is looking positive. However, the low prevailing market rate may result in the negative interest of farmers and could affect next years production.
Prices have been rising steadily recently, and suppliers are providing advance notice about a limited and difficult price market.
No carryover remains, and Morocco enters the new season with zero 2015 stocks.
RED PEPPER (CHILLIES)
Market is expected to settle at current levels for the short term, until Oct/Nov where festival demand might create some volatility. During November, if stocks available in cold storage are considerably more against the demand until new crop arrival, we can expect a sudden selling pressure which will drastically drop the prices.
Indian: Pepper planters in Kerala and Karnataka are in wait and watch mode for expected production for the new season as monsoon for these two states is projected above normal.
The pepper market is rather silent with low arrivals due to onset of the monsoon. Since the monsoon is going to be good, we are anticipating a better production for the current season.
Vietnamese: Is said to have exported almost 70% of its crop and the selling pressure is low. The forthcoming Indonesian crop which is said to be 25-30% lower is expected to be delayed by a month. Carryover stocks in Lampung is also reported to be almost nil.
Indian: Madras Finger Turmeric (MFT): With the progression of the monsoon across India and major turmeric producing states receiving good rainfall, the planting is progressing well although area under cultivation has reduced. The other major concern in MFT is low carry forward expected for 2017. Speculators/stockist may take this opportunity to hold their stocks to firm up the prices to a higher level, especially during the end of this year before the new season arrivals.
Indian: Ginger rates are moving on a steady trend. Minimal returns from dry ginger due to bottom market rate throughout this season may result in negative farmer interest and lead to low production next season. Also the production depends on the rainfall across the growing regions.
Nigerian: Market is steady with low availability of EU compliant material.
Chinese: Steady trend continues. Availability limited for low SO2 Grade.
Indian: Fennel prices have eased during last week and settled at current levels. Fennel sowing will start by Oct. Since current year pricing is not attractive, there could be a decrease in acreages.
However, we are expecting good carry over stock for next season, which will balance the low production numbers.
Turkish: Market conditions and repeated MRL concerns over product has caused Turkish fennel plantation to decline sharply over the last 5 years. Currently, almost 90% of Turkish fennel is contracted, with very little product available for spot buying. From an annual average of 1,500t, last years’ crop has declined to 800t, and is expected to remain at this level for the foreseeable future.
What carryover remains from 2015 is reported to be around 10-20t, and is badly rain damaged with inferior colour.
Contracted fennel production is limited to Burdur area, and spot material will not be available in 2016. Unless pre-contracted, spot buying/selling of Turkish Fennel will not be possible in 2016. Prolonged spells of hot weather have led to weak pod and seed development.
DILL SEED & FENUGREEK
The high rate in the dill seed market, may attract farmers to plant but it will also depend on the price trend of Bishop seed & other seed spices which can be an alternative crop for dill seed farmers.
The fenugreek market rate during the current season is low compared to previous season, so this crop would gain a negative farmer interest and this may affect the sowing for next season.
Indian: Positive trend in the cumin prices is expected to remain intact for the short term due to supply shortage and emerging domestic as well as export demand.
Since the monsoon is forecasted to be above normal, we can expect good soil moisture during cumin sowing time and prices in the physical markets will guide the farmers in deciding sowing of cumin.
At present, higher prices are attracting farmers to go for more cumin planting during the upcoming season.
Turkish: Rains have meant a reduced harvest of 4,500-5,000t. The market is extremely volatile and there will not be a fall in prices anytime soon.
Syrian: Domestic difficulties continue to plague the country, and accurate data is hard to obtain. The harvest has started although price levels and market has not changed. Exporters are facing immense difficulties delivering their product to the ports, causing delays in meeting commitments and delivery dates.
Iranian: The Cumin harvest has already started. There are almost no carryover stocks from 2015. Earlier expectations were for the 2016 crop to be roughly 15,000t.
Turkish: Turkish anise crop dynamics are mostly dependent on local consumption and distillation of Raki. Rain damage in the Denizli region has meant poor quality and dark colour crop with small and weak filled pods estimates are 3,500-4,000t harvest.
Syrian: As indicated in earlier reports, domestic conditions in the country continue to worsen, and Anise has been hard hit. This will most likely result in a crop size of around 3,000 MT, half of what it used to be 1 year ago. Hama area has been heavily affected by the ongoing war, resulting a sharp decline in areas planted.
Harvest has started in June, and prices remain stable compared to 2015. Crop quality is good.
The price for dehydrated garlic flakes are at historically high levels and are triple the price they were this time last year. Bad weather has meant the Chinese crop is 20% down. Prices for fresh are double what they were in 2015. Speculation and strict pollution control have meant there has not been mass dehydration this year resulting in 50-60,000t of product compared to 80-90,000t last year and a normal global demand of 150-160,000t. Due to financial pressures, factories are switching from long term contracts to prompt shipments orders only, and this against reduced payment terms.
2016 harvest is now complete. Final crop size is expected to be 10,500t lower than the 12,500t expected. The impact of oregano adulteration in 2015 has led to higher customer awareness. So far farmers are delivering raw material with higher yield and less stems/sticks.
Mexican: We project near normal availability of raw material this year. New crop pricing has not been established. We expect early asking prices for raw material to be high because last season ending prices were very high in relation to previous years.
Albanian: Similar crop size to 2015 however, late rains have caused serious weed problems for both wild and cultivated sage.
Turkish: Collection continues, and we estimate total crop to be similar to last year. High quality lots.
Moroccan: Harvest now complete. Co-operatives in Morocco are becoming more established and are wielding increasingly higher purchasing power. 2016 prices were not as low as initially expected. For the forthcoming season of 2017 new license tenders, Government policy, co-operative effectiveness and carry-over stocks will be main determining factors influencing prices.
Moroccan: Thyme collections are now complete. As expected, prices are higher compared to 2015, and volumes are significantly lower.
Polish: Increased acreage planted does not necessarily equate to a higher amount of raw material. Weather patterns and “optimal” rain in August/September will determine total crop availability. The harvest will be in late September/early October.
Albanian: Harvest still ongoing. Increased demand has pushed prices up.
Turkish: Harvest is now complete. Expected volumes have been collected and we foresee no shortage in material.
Bulgarian: Sources indicate a quiet market until September 2016.
Negotiations and cutting permission discussions should be complete. Price/volume demand from the Far East market will adversely affect European supply.